WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
                JUNE 19, 2002 DISCUSSION:    

1)    Persistent seasonal rains saturated soils and may have swollen rivers across the western
highlands of Ethiopia, as well as some adjacent parts of Sudan. Seasonal rains are expected to
continue throughout the period, some of which may be locally heavy.  As a result of the
combination of nearly saturated soils, high river levels and additional rainfall; the risk of flooding
exists for much of western Ethiopia and adjacent portions of southeastern Sudan. The risk of
landslides exists as well.  

2) Less than 10 mm of rain has fallen along much of the Kenya and southern Somalia coast since
June 1. These areas typically receive 30 to 45 mm of rainfall during the first half of June. As a
result, parts of coastal Kenya and coastal southern Somalia have been highlighted for dryness.
Due to heavy rains which fell throughout mid-May, areas near the Kenya-Somalia boarder have
not been highlighted.  Isolated showers are possible throughout the period along the Kenya-
Somalia coast. However, drier than normal conditions are expected to persist. As a result,
dryness is expected to increase throughout the area.  
 
3)   A drought during the last half of the 2001-02 rainy season has resulted in large moisture          
deficits across the Limpopo River Basin in southeastern Africa. This has reduced water
availability to reservoirs, wells and rivers across the area. A frontal system is expected to produce
showers across eastern portions of the hazard area, with 5 to 30 mm of rainfall anticipated.
Central Botswana will remain dry. Major improvement is not expected until November, when the
rainy season usually begins. 

4)   Heavy monsoonal rains during recent weeks have resulted in nearly saturated soils and local
flooding problems in parts of equatorial Africa. With additional rainfall expected during the
period, the potential for flooding exists across parts of southern Sudan/northeastern DRC and
across much of the Gulf of Guinea region. These are areas where the soils are near or at
saturation, and can absorb little in the way of additional rainfall. The greatest risk for flooding
exists along the Gulf of Guinea coast from Nigeria west to Ghana, where the heaviest rains are
expected. This includes the coastal cities of Lagos, Nigeria;  Lome, Togo; and Accra, Ghana. 

5)   Daily maximum temperatures may exceed 45 deg C across portions of northeastern Nigeria
and central Chad from June 20 through June 23. Heat of this magnitude may have a negative
impact on the health of people and livestock, and may stress recently planted crops. 

  
Author: Chester V. Schmitt