WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
		May 23, 2002 DISCUSSION:

1)   During the past week, moderate to heavy rains fell along coastal areas of eastern
     Kenya and southern Somalia, with weekly totals exceeding 150 mm locally.  This has
     helped to ease dryness in northeastern parts of the Hazard region, although little to no
     rainfall was recorded further inland.  This trend is expected to continue during at 
     least the next week, as onshore winds should enhance precipitation along the coast, but
     not further westward.  The storms that brought significant rains last week should not be
     as intense from May 23-29, but local accumulated precipitation totals may be at or above
     100 mm along the coast, east of the dry area.

2)   Hydrological drought conditions remain throughout much of southern Mozambique,
     northeastern South Africa, southern Zimbabwe, and east-central Botswana due to poor rains
     during their normal monsoonal period.  Little change is expected during the next months
     as high pressure should dominate the area and prevent helpful rainfall.

3)   Moderate to heavy rains are again expected anywhere from southeastern Nigeria to northern
     Congo during the next week.  Widespread rainfall totals exceeding 50 mm for the week are
     likely, with local totals exceeding 100 mm.  The rains should gradually move northward
     during the next few weeks, as the Intertropical Convergence Zone progresses away from the
     equator.

4)   Rainfall has moderated throughout parts of southwestern Kenya, northern Tanzania, Rwanda,
     and Burundi during the past two weeks, but moderate to heavy rainfall may occur near the
     central/southern Uganda-Kenya border during the next 5-7 days.  Due to already saturated
     soil conditions, the possibility remains for local areas of flooding and a few 
     landslides on steeper terrain during the heaviest thunderstorms.

  
Author: Timothy B Love