WEEKLY AFRICAN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
                                
          May 16, 2002 DISCUSSION:

1)   Although some areas in northern Algeria and Tunisia remain climatologically dry for the
     season, dryness should begin to expedite agricultural harvesting throughout the region.
     Locally, three month rainfall totals range from 50% to 100% of normal, but overall,
     seasonal precipitation amounts are near normal throughout much of the area.  Thus, the
     drought region will be removed from the Hazards Assessment after the current period.
     Little to no rainfall is forecast during the next week.

2)   Short term dryness has emerged in an area of the Ethiopian highlands, as rainfall totals
     since the beginning of May 2002 are less than normal for the period.  Due to the 
     normally short growing season in the region, dryness that has been noted is detrimental
     to crop production and little rain is expected throughout most of the watch area.
     However, precipitation forecast models are indicating a chance for substantial rainfall
     during the next week to the southwest of the region, with 7-day totals greater than 
     75 mm possible.

3)   During the past week, dryness has remained throughout parts of southeastern Kenya and
     northeastern Tanzania, as little to no rainfall accumulation has been recorded.  Although
     the primary area of concern is in southeastern Kenya, as substantiated by current
     remotely sensed hydrological and agricultural products, rainfall deficits are also noted
     further to the west-southwest into Tanzania.  An area of enhanced rainfall is forecast to
     move northwest from the northern Mozambique Channel during the next 72 hours and 
     possibly bring moderately heavy rains to coastal areas of southern Kenya and northern 
     Tanzania starting May 20th.

4)   Hydrological drought conditions remain throughout much of southern Mozambique,
     northeastern South Africa, southern Zimbabwe, and east-central Botswana due to poor rains
     during their normal monsoonal period.  Little change is expected during the next months
     as high pressure should dominate the area and prevent helpful rainfall.

5)   The very heavy rains that have pounded areas of central and southwestern Kenya,
     southeastern Uganda, northwestern Tanzania, and eastern Rwanda and Burundi during the 
     past few weeks moderated somewhat during the past week and eased flooding a bit.
     Although generally light rains are forecast during the next week, any precipitation
     that falls on the already saturated ground is likely to produce local flooding and
     possibly landslides on steep slopes.  Moderate to heavy rains in excess of 100 mm 
     locally are again forecast for an area from Nigeria to Gabon during the next week.  
     Although some storms could produce torrential rains, only light, local flooding may be 
     expected.

  
Author: Timothy B Love