gov.noaa.cpc:8-14dayp
DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC
1978
Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 Day Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska
map
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
HTTP
web browser
Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 Day Outlooks
Index page for the Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 Day Outlooks
information
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 8 to 14 day probabilistic precipitation outlooks for the United States. CPC expresses the outlooks in a 3-category probabilistic format as the chance the total precipitation for the period will be above, below, or near normal.
These outlooks pertain to the total precipitation for the entire valid period and not to the variability within it. As such, they will be of most use for business and economic planning, particularly when used with 30 year base period means.
1978
Present
ground condition
Daily
-180.0
-15.0
90.0
15.0
ISO 19115 MD Topic Category Code
climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
004
NASA GCMD Science Keywords
Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Amount
Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Anomalies
NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Continent, North America, United States of America
NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Vertical Location, Boundary layer
None
Acknowledgement of the Data Originator when using the data item as a source
Climate Prediction Center
Jon Gottschalck
Meteorologist.
Mailing and physical
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs
Maryland
20746
United States of America
(301) 763-8000
Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.ncsp.gif
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 8 to 14 day probabilistic precipitation outlooks for the United States. CPC expresses the outlooks in a 3-category probabilistic format as the chance the total precipitation for the period will be above, below, or near normal.
GIF
Not provided
Unknown
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These maps show the likelihood (or probability) that the total precipitation (P) in the 7-day period of the outlook will fall into one of three categories. These are below (indicated by a B on the map), the middle category (indicated by an N), and above (indicated by an A). At any given location, the chances of these three categories sum to 100%.
The median (for P) is indicated by the dashed lines, and (unlike the forecasts) are labeled with the actual values of the long-term median, in inches, for P.
Below and above are relatively far away from the long-term (30-year) median of observations at any given location, while the middle category sits squarely over the median for any given location.
The below and above outlook categories are indicated by colored shading and solid lines, and go in intervals of 33%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90%. The middle (N) category is un-shaded. We treat the middle category (sometimes called normal) differently from B and A, because research shows our ability to make useful predictions lies almost entirely in predicting those extreme categories. The chance of B, N, and A in the un-shaded region are each close to 33%.
The shading and solid lines show the category and likelihood of the indicated category (B or A). Instead of using three maps (one for each category), we get away with using one map, by saying that, as the likelihood of one extreme category rises above the 33% (or even odds), the likelihood of the opposite category declines by the same amount, and the chance of the middle category stays at 33%.
So, for example, along the 33% contour, the chances of all three categories are about 33% each (their likelihoods are really each 33.333% each, and we round off to 33%). In an area where above is indicated, along the 40% contour, the chances of the three categories (B, N, A) are about (27%, 33%,40%). The rules change when the chance of a category exceeds 63%. In that case, the chance of the middle and the other extreme category both decline as the chance of the favored category rises.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Meteorologist
mailing and physical
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs
Maryland
20746
United States of America
(301) 763-8000
jon.gottschalck@noaa.gov
001
See the NOAA National Weather Service disclaimer at http://www.weather.gov/disclaimer.php
GIF
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
HTTP
web browser
Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 Day Outlooks
Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 Day Outlooks Index Page
download
None
20090911
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Meteorologist
mailing and physical
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs
Maryland
20746
United States of America
(301) 763-8000
scott.handel@noaa.gov
FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
FGDC-STD-001-1998
http://www.fgdc.gov/standards/projects/FGDC-standards-projects/csdgm_rs_ex/MetadataRemoteSensingExtens.pdf
http://www.fgdc.gov/standards/projects/FGDC-standards-projects/csdgm_rs_ex/remote-sensing-metadata
Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata: Extensions for Remote Sensing Metadata, FGDC-STD-012-2002
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/metadata/extensions/local_extensions.html
NGDC Extensions to FGDC Metadata